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国家党支持率领先优势扩大，新政府获认可，但仍存在关键问题_我的网站

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A | Sophie 编译一项最新的民意调查显示，国家党的支持率上升了两个百分点，达到38%，扩大了对工党的领先优势。工党的支持率下降了一个百分点，至29%。

B | 这些数据来自Talbot-Mills对企业客户的调查。

C | "For decades now, the Pacific Ocean can be fairly described as an American lake, in which the US strategic presence is actively supported by the Australian and to a lesser extent New Zealand economic and security presence," says Joseph Camilleri, emeritus professor at La Trobe University in Melbourne.,However, with the People's Republic of China's (PRC) swift economic rise, it's hardly surprising that Beijing has started to explore new possibilities in the Pacific, according to the academic.,"What has particularly troubled the United States and its principal ally in the South Pacific, Australia, is the fact that China is making inroads into what was until now considered to be an exclusive American sphere of influence," he stresses.,On July 13, Vice President Kamala Harris told the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) in Suva in a virtual address that US funding for the region would be stepped up to $60 million per year for 10 years. The newly announced endeavor includes more funding for fisheries, extra aid, and offers of new US embassies in the Pacific. In particular, the US is set to ink renewed fishing treaties with Pacific island nations allowing US vessels to fish in their exclusive economic zones (EEZ), and offering greater support for maritime surveillance in the Pacific. In addition to that, the Peace Corps – the United States government's volunteer program – will return to four countries, including Fiji, Tonga, Samoa, and Vanuatu, according to CNN.,Australia Welcomes 'Renewed Commitment' From US Towards Pacific, Willing to Work With China11:38 GMT,"The timing of the pledge has much to do with the strategic competition between the United States and China," Camilleri explains. "In recent years, China has made considerable headway in developing its relations with [the Pacific Island Forum (PIF)] board, including cooperation in political, security and regional affairs, aid and development, COVID response and health, Ocean affairs and climate change, and much else.",The US attempt to assert its presence in the Pacific region also comes on the heels of the Quad IUU Fishing Initiative announced in late May, according to Jay Batongbacal, director of the University of the Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea.,The leaders of the Quad nations — Australia, India, Japan, and the United States – proposed a maritime surveillance initiative to establish a tracking system to combat illegal, unregulated, and unprotected (IUU) fishing. The Quad endeavor may be viewed as an extension of earlier initiatives against China's fishing activities in the South Pacific, according to the academic.,"The South Pacific region is presently one of the richest and most active fishery areas in the world," he highlights.,Why Asia Won't Reject Russia's Hydrocarbons or China's Rare Earths Despite US PressureYesterday, 18:54 GMT,Even if Half of Pacific Islands Ink China Pact, It'll be Beijing's Win,Two months ago, Beijing offered a draft agreement between China and 10 island nations spanning policing, security, fisheries, data, and a free trade zone. Some Pacific leaders have agreed to consider China's trade and security pact, while the others have voiced concerns that their rapprochement with Beijing could antagonize Washington.,"The Chinese proposal to establish a China-Pacific Islands cooperation framework agreement may not yet have won sufficient support but I expect that the Chinese side will persist with its proposal, and that it may be happy to proceed with it, even if only five or six Island states are prepared to sing such an agreement," says Camilleri.,Prior to that, in mid-April, the Chinese and the Solomon Islands governments formally signed a bilateral security agreement regardless of the displeasure voiced by the US, Australia, and New Zealand. Commenting on the pact on June 3, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi underscored that its purpose is "to assist the Solomon Islands in maintaining social order." He vehemently denied Western media speculation about China's apparent plans to beef up its military presence in the region.,"China has come to the South Pacific region to build roads and bridges and improve the people’s lives, not to station troops or build military bases," Wang highlighted.,© MANDEL NGANUS President Joe Biden meets with China's President Xi Jinping during a virtual summit from the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC, November 15, 2021. US President Joe Biden meets with China's President Xi Jinping during a virtual summit from the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, DC, November 15, 2021. © MANDEL NGAN,US-China Competition for Pacific Islands Region Will Intensify,As the US and China's competition for the resource-rich region unfolds, it all depends on what Washington and Beijing can offer to Pacific island nations, according to Camilleri.,"It is doubtful that the paltry sum of $60 million offered by the United States can even begin to match what China is offering, or that it will greatly impress the Pacific Islands States meeting in Fiji," the professor suggests.,Furthermore, China has made substantial progress in building trade relations with the countries of the region as well as in establishing diplomatic ties with the PIF. The People's Republic was first invited to attend the PIF-related Talk on Establishing Dialogue Partnership held in Suva, Fiji, in 1988. Since 1990, China has attended the Post-Forum Dialogue meetings on a regular basis. In 2003, China announced its willingness to further expand economic ties with PIF member countries as well as to provide funding for the forum's secretariat.,"According to official Chinese figures, from 1992 to 2021, total trade volume between China and Pacific Island Countries (PICs) having diplomatic relations with China grew from $153 million to $5.3 billion, registering an average annual increase of 13% and expanding by over 30 times in 30 years. Similarly, by the end of 2021, China’s direct investment in PICs having diplomatic relations with China had reached $2.72 billion," says Camilleri.,The competition between the United States and its allies on the one hand and China on the other will, if anything, gather pace and intensity in the years to come, the professor says, adding that Beijing's advantage is that "it comes to the table with a much bigger checkbook, and greater opportunities for trade and investment, especially in infrastructure projects."。Talbot-Mills还为工党进行一项单独的内部民调。 Advertise with us 绿党的支持率稳定在12%，而行动党下降1个百分点，至7%。

D | 优先党的支持率为6.2%，毛利党4.9%，机遇党（Top）1.4%。这项民意调查是在2月1日至2月10日之间进行的，包括怀唐伊日前后的一段时间。在此期间，政府对《怀唐伊条约》的态度成为关注焦点。在此之前，纳税人联盟-Curia最近进行的一项民意调查显示，行动党的支持率要高得多，为13.7%，而绿党的支持率则低得多，为9%。在首选总理方面，国家党党魁Christopher Luxon以27%的支持率领先，与上月持平。工党党魁Chris Hipkins的支持率下降3个百分点，至23%。

E | 与民意调查一同发布的评论指出，国民情绪似乎正在转向支持新政府。 “正确轨道/错误轨道”指标显示，43%的人认为国家走在正确的轨道上，相比之下，有41%的人认为国家走在错误的轨道上。这是自2022年6月以来，该调查首次录得“正确轨道”的正面反馈。 “正确的轨道/错误的轨道”是一个政府政治命运的关键指标。如果人们对国家前进的方向感到乐观，那么执政的政党很可能会受到支持。

F | 民意调查评论指出了自2023年9月（前政府的最后几周）以来国民情绪的变化，当时35%的受访者表示国家走在正确的轨道上，而59%的人认为国家走在错误的轨道上。对政府来说，另一个关键指标仍然是负面的。25%的人认为经济“优秀或良好”，相比之下，73%的人认为经济“不太好”或“糟糕”。相关阅读：最新民调：行动党及其党魁支持率飙升毛利事务撕裂新政府，国庆日怀唐伊成战场 2024首次民调出炉！国家党大获全胜，Chris Hipkins支持率跌至历史最低最新民调：Luxon支持率下滑，优先党和毛利党成最大赢家大选日临近！过去18个月，各党的支持率发生了怎样的变化？大选前最后的民调出炉，没有谁能“稳赢”！历史是否将再次上演？最新民调：工党支持率上升，“造王者”还是优先党国家党警告称或需“二次选举” 可能性到底有多大？政治学家解读：联合执政面临哪些风险？合作关系破裂怎么办？新民调：优先党支持率继续上升！国家党+行动党席位减少 “造王者”依然是Peters！两大党支持率与上周持平，行动党跌了...... 注：本文为编译/原创，欢迎转发分享；但严禁复制等未经授权的非法使用。违反上述声明者，本网将追究其相关法律责任。使用授权请联系[email protected]。 chineseherald.co.nz All Rights Reserved 版权所有 (责编：Sophie) 相关内容政府今年将节省开支大举减税，有多少公务员会被裁？基督城大火控制了70%，房屋被烧毁，近百名消防员彻夜轮班《2024年国情报告》发布，新西兰面临两个重大问题乘火车难有望解决！奥克兰市长召开联合会议，发布9点计划近5万养老金领取者年收入超10万纽币部分人的“救命钱”只是他人零钱基督城大火蔓延630公顷，大量房屋疏散，警方呼吁：不要围观妨碍灭火！新西兰打环境官司，全世界都在看警惕！科罗曼德尔一养老院爆发严重流感疫情，致六人死亡。

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